How HitLegend makes its numbers
Every value, confidence score, completion figure and Legend in HitLegend is produced by a versioned method. This page is that method, as of 2026-09-20. When a method changes, its version changes; history is never silently rewritten.
HitSignal — value and confidence hitsignal-v1:trimmed-mean/last10-6mo/decay14d/trim15
A card's value is read per printing and per condition or grade, never averaged across them. Where a source gives us raw sales, we take the last 10 within 6 months, drop the top and bottom 15%, and weight recent sales more (a sale two weeks old counts half). Where a source gives us a computed price (JustTCG), we take that number as theirs and add confidence, provenance and segmentation.
Never averaged together: graded vs raw · each grade separately · market (US only at launch) · sale vs ask — asks are shown live and never enter the value · auction vs fixed price.
| 5 | a sale within the last two weeks, adequate sample, tight spread |
| 4 | recent sales, reasonable sample |
| 3 | sales within the window, thin sample or wide spread |
| 2 | stale or very thin — a point estimate is becoming dishonest |
| 1 | a comparable-based estimate or a single old sale: we show a range, not a number |
Every stored value carries its source, licence, basis (sale or estimate), sample size, as-of time and this version string.
Sources: JustTCG (TCG, computed per-condition prices); The Card API (sports sold comps, our estimator runs on the raw sales); CardSight (sports auction results; short-term cache only, per their terms).
Our series begins the day we started collecting for a card; no backfill exists. Movers and one-year ranges come from the source's own statistics from day one.
Totals
A binder or a shelf is the sum of its copies at their own condition and grade. A copy counts once per shelf however many binders hold it. Confidence is not averaged: we show how much of the value comes from high-confidence estimates.
Cost basis
Cost basis and profit come only from acquisition prices you entered. We say how many of your cards are costed.
Your Legend legend-v1
Your Legend is one card, not simply the priciest: value (45%), scarcity (25% — serial numbering, print run, rarity tier, a gem grade) and significance (30% — the oldest card you own if it is at least 15 years old, the one you have held longest if over three years, a high-confidence value). It changes only on a genuine change.
Completion
A set or run is a rule over the catalogue. Progress counts distinct printings (master), distinct cards (base — any printing counts) or an explicit list. The weighted score gives each card a weight of 1–10 by its value rank among the set; raw cards count exactly like graded ones. Cost to complete is the sum of the missing cards' near-mint values and is withheld while any missing card is unpriced.
Rarity rarity-tiers-v1
Native rarity labels are kept as printed and also mapped to one coarse cross-game scale: common, uncommon, rare, ultra rare, secret rare, unknown.
Identification
Cards are identified from your photograph: a detector finds each card, a vision model reads what is printed on it, and a catalogue lookup or a specialist identification service settles the exact card. Anything below our confidence bar goes to your review queue — a wrong card is never filed silently. Rows we build ourselves come only from facts printed on your card.
What we do not claim
- No price history before the day we started collecting for a card.
- One market (US) at launch.
- Population data is not yet an input.
- Sealed product is not yet valued.
The same content is available as JSON at /api/methodology and is quoted in every report.